Sensitivity of the simulation of tropical cyclone size to microphysics schemes     

Kelvin T. F. Chan  Johnny C. L. Chan 《大气科学进展》2016,33(9):1024-1035

The sensitivity of the simulation of tropical cyclone(TC) size to microphysics schemes is studied using the Advanced Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model(WRF). Six TCs during the 2013 western North Pacific typhoon season and three mainstream microphysics schemes–Ferrier(FER), WRF Single-Moment 5-class(WSM5) and WRF Single-Moment6-class(WSM6)–are investigated. The results consistently show that the simulated TC track is not sensitive to the choice of microphysics scheme in the early simulation, especially in the open ocean. However, the sensitivity is much greater for TC intensity and inner-core size. The TC intensity and size simulated using the WSM5 and WSM6 schemes are respectively higher and larger than those using the FER scheme in general, which likely results from more diabatic heating being generated outside the eyewall in rainbands. More diabatic heating in rainbands gives higher inflow in the lower troposphere and higher outflow in the upper troposphere, with higher upward motion outside the eyewall. The lower-tropospheric inflow would transport absolute angular momentum inward to spin up tangential wind predominantly near the eyewall, leading to the increment in TC intensity and size(the inner-core size, especially). In addition, the inclusion of graupel microphysics processes(as in WSM6) may not have a significant impact on the simulation of TC track, intensity and size.  相似文献   

T639台风预报误差与环境场变量的相关分析和回归分析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

黄奕武  高拴柱  钱奇峰 《气象》2016,42(12):1506-1512

利用国家气象中心全球谱模式T639L60(简称T639)数值预报结果和上海台风研究所整编的台风最佳路径数据,基于2009—2010年的样本,分析了西北太平洋和南海台风的环境场预报变量与路径预报误差的相关性,利用线性回归分析,建立了T639台风中心预报误差与环境风整层垂直切变、400 hPa台风环流强度的24~120 h各预报时效线性预估模型(建模样本数分别为299、232、170、117和84个),并利用2011年的样本对模型进行了检验(检验样本数分别为182、146、117、85和61个)。初步结果表明,环境风垂直切变与路径误差呈正相关,台风各层环流强度与路径误差大致呈负相关,其中400 hPa上的负相关性最明显;由环境风垂直切变与400 hPa台风环流强度建立的线性预估模型能对路径预报误差作出定性估计,其中24h预报时效的预估模型有较好的预估效果。  相似文献   

常用稳健估计方法在测边网解算中的应用     

董巧玲  葛永慧 《测绘科学》2016,41(5):147-151

针对最小二乘估计中稳健估计方法的效果尚未被分析证明的问题,该文以不同观测值数量、不同粗差数量和等权或不等权观测值的三个测边网为例,通过仿真实验的方法,对12种常用稳健估计方法的稳健性进行了比较,确定了对测边网解算相对更为有效的稳健估计方法。结果表明,L1法、Danish法、German-McClure法和IGGIII方案是12种方法中更为有效的稳健估计方法,能相对更有效地消除或减弱粗差对参数估计结果的影响。  相似文献   

室内用户语义位置模式挖掘研究——以商场为例     

张心悦  王光霞  吴月  马嘉琳  王思 《测绘与空间地理信息》2016,(2):12-16

结合室内轨迹数据的特点,研究了室内移动对象语义轨迹序列处理方法,以及利用LDA主题模型与用户历史轨迹进行室内商场用户分类的方法。提出了通过关联规则分析挖掘用户语义位置模式的方法,并以北京某大型商场的实际用户轨迹数据为例,对所提出的方法进行了实验验证。  相似文献   

鄂尔多斯盆地东北部差异隆升过程裂变径迹分析   总被引：4，自引：4，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

丁超  陈刚  郭兰  张文龙  师晓林  徐小刚  刘腾 《中国地质》2016,(4):1238-1247

基于磷灰石裂变径迹(AFT)的分析方法,探讨鄂尔多斯盆地东北缘差异隆升过程及其隆升强度,为鄂尔多斯盆地东北缘(晋西挠摺带府谷—吴堡区段)构造演化历史及其与多种能源矿产耦合关系提供新的认识。不同构造单元及其不同层系样品的AFT分析表明:研究区北段府谷—兴县地区构造抬升相对较早,且经历了白垩纪晚期(86~56Ma)和古近纪(44~37 Ma)两次隆升过程,平均隆升速率分别为24.5 m/Ma和41.8 m/Ma;研究区中段紫金山地区抬升相对较晚,主控构造事件发生在晚白垩世末期—古近纪早期(68~56 Ma)和古近纪中晚期(35 Ma),平均隆升速率分别为48.8 m/Ma和49.2 m/Ma;研究区南段临县—吴堡地区抬升最晚(35~21 Ma),平均隆升速率为73.9 m/Ma。因此,鄂尔多斯盆地东北缘晚白垩世以来的差异隆升过程具有北段抬升早、中段抬升相对较晚和南段抬升更晚的特点,南北区段统一的强烈构造抬升活动主要发生在古近纪以来的晚近时期,且构造隆升强度由南向北逐渐减弱。结合已有的成矿(藏)年代学资料分析表明,鄂尔多斯盆地东北缘关键构造事件及其隆升强度与多种矿产耦合成矿(藏)事件关系密切,构造事件与成藏(矿)事件呈现出显著的协同耦合特点。  相似文献   

延页平3井大偏移距水平井减阻降摩技术研究          下载免费PDF全文

马振锋  闫志远  杨全枝  杨先伦  李红梅  赵毅 《探矿工程》2016,43(7):76-79,83

减阻降摩技术是大偏移距水平井成功完钻的关键技术之一。通过对井眼轨迹参数优化,优选出具有低摩阻系数的井眼轨迹;建立摩阻/扭矩分析模型,分析了钻井液粘滞力和管柱屈曲对摩阻的影响,推导出摩阻/扭矩计算公式,提出了摩阻/扭矩预测的方法;采用低摩阻系数的油基钻井液,将摩阻系数降低了65.2%;采用漂浮下套管技术,极大地降低了下套管过程中的摩阻。延页平3井中成功应用上述技术,准确地预测了钻井过程的摩阻,解决了大偏移距水平井钻井过程中的托压问题,实现了套管一次性下放到位。延页平3井的应用表明：上述技术可以在大偏移距水平井中推广使用,并对国内其他地区大偏移距水平井施工有一定借鉴意义。  相似文献   

大兴安岭北段中新生代隆升与剥露历史的磷灰石裂变径迹证据   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

吴环环  胡道功  吴学文  游报捷  常鹏渊  张蒙 《地质通报》2016,35(12):2058-2062

对采自大兴安岭北段漠河盆地及盆地西南缘10个中酸性侵入岩样品进行了磷灰石裂变径迹年代学测试。测试结果显示,样品的径迹年龄介于72±7~99±5Ma之间,平均径迹长度介于12.5±1.5~13.7±1.8μm之间。利用热史模拟软件AFTSovle对样品进行热史模拟,结果表明,大兴安岭北段中新生代主要经历了2个重要的构造运动阶段,分别为白垩纪(120~90Ma)快速隆升剥蚀阶段及古新世(约60Ma)以来快速隆升剥蚀阶段。由此推测,这2个构造运动事件的形成分别主要受中生代末古太平洋俯冲及新生代太平洋俯冲的影响。  相似文献   

Comparison between chironomid-inferred July temperatures and meteorological data AD 1850–2001 from varved Lake Silvaplana,Switzerland     

Isabelle Larocque  Martin Grosjean  Oliver Heiri  Christian Bigler  Alex Blass 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2009,41(2):329-342

Inferred temperatures from chironomids preserved in the varved sediment of Lake Silvaplana in the Eastern Swiss Alps were compared with instrumental data obtained from a meteorological station in Sils-Maria, on the shore of Lake Silvaplana, for the time interval 1850–2001. At near-annual resolution, the general patterns of chironomid-inferred temperature changes followed the meteorological record over the last ∼150 years (r _Pearson = 0.65, P = 0.01) and 87% of the inferences had deviations from the instrumental data below the root-mean-square error of prediction (RMSEP). When the inferences were compared with a 2-year running mean in the meteorological data, 94% of the inferences had differences with the instrumental data below the RMSEP, indicating that more than half of the inaccurate inferences may have been due to errors in varve counting. Larger deviations from the instrumental data were also obtained from samples with low percentages of fossil taxa represented in the training set used for temperature reconstruction and/or assemblages with poor fit to temperature. Changes in total phosphorus (TP, as inferred by diatoms) and/or greater precipitation were possible factors affecting the accuracy of the temperature reconstruction. Although these factors might affect the quantitative estimates, obtaining >80% accurate temperature inferences suggests that chironomid analysis is a reliable tool for reconstructing mean July air temperature quantitatively over the last ∼150 years in Lake Silvaplana.  相似文献   

应用裂变径迹不同模式约束岩体冷却史的初步探讨—以滇西独龙江岩体为例   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

雷永良  龚道好  王先美  钟大赉  王雪松  张进 《地球物理学进展》2008,23(2):422-432

在利用磷灰石裂变径迹热年代学方法来约束岩体冷却史的应用中,由于地质条件和磷灰石退火性质的限制,表观年龄往往不能直接代表特定地质事件的时间.利用封闭径迹的长度直方图模式和高程-年龄模式可定性地反映出岩体冷却史是否遭受过干扰.平均径迹长度-年龄(或香蕉图)模式、径迹年龄谱模式以及反演模拟在某种程度上可用来限定地质过程中冷却启动的时间.然而,对于多阶段的冷却史,模式和模拟分析的不确定性仍较显著,对早期时限的定量揭示仍是研究和应用中的一个难点.只有结合多种方法、模式和模拟的运用并考虑地质背景才能较清晰地约束岩体的冷却历史.  相似文献   

Fission track dating of the Cenozoic uplift in Mabian area, southern Sichuan Province, China     

《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2008,(9)

The apparent ages of samples are obtained from fission track dating of apatite samples collected from the fault zones in Mabian area, southern Sichuan Province. In addition, thermal history is simulated from the obtained data by applying AFT Solve Program, to acquire the thermal evolution history of the samples. The result shows that tectonically the Mabian area was relatively stable between 25 and 3 Ma, compared to the inner parts and other marginal areas of the Tibetan Plateau. The studied area had little response to the rapid uplift events that occurred for several times in the Tibetan Plateau during 25-3 Ma. The latest thermal event related to the activity of the Lidian fault zone (about 8 Ma ) is later than that of the Ebian fault zone (18-15 Ma ) to the west, indicating to some extent that the evolution of fault activity in the Mabian area has migrated from west to east. The latest extensive tectonic uplift occurred since about 3 Ma. As compared with the Xianshuihe fault zone, the Mabian area is closer to the east- ern margin of the plateau, while the time of fast cooling event in this area is later than that in the southeast segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone (3.6-3.46 Ma ). It appears to support the assumption of episodic uplift and stepwise outward extension of the eastern boundary of the Tibetan Plateau in late Cenozoic.  相似文献